Wednesday, September 10, 2008
College football picks week 3...
Yes, I know what you're thinking. If you are going to pick football games you have to do it every week starting week 1. To this I say, blah. It's my blog and I'll pick starting week 3 if I want to. Besides, it's not like the first 2 weeks have provided us with loads of notable national matchups that were worth much dissecting anyhow(unless of course you are an East Carolina fan). This week we have games worth of a picksmeister's time starting with...
THE GAME OF THE CENTURY
or so the ESPN/ABC overlords would have us believe...
5. Ohio St. @ 1. USC- Big 10 vs. Pac 10, national championship implications, Tressel vs. Carroll, Keith Jackson calling, whoa nelly this one has all the makings of greatness. Or it did until Ohio St. very nearly crapped the bed against the Ohio Bobcats. This plus Beanie Wells, being at less than 100% and the Trojans looking so good last week sets the stage for a USC massacre of the Buckeyes, right? Well, maybe, upon further review, UVA(USC's wk 1 conquest) may suck. They managed only 9 more points against mighty Richmond this week than they did against the Trojans the week before. Plus, I'm still not entirely sold on the USC offense. Still given Ohio St's issues with speedy teams in big games, and the fact that it's in LA will have me picking the Men of Troy to win. If you're a betting man, I'd take the Eyes of Buck and the points though. 11 is a big spread for this matchup.
2. Georgia @ S. Carolina- Generally I worry myself sick when my beloved Dawgs play the Gamecocks, because history tells us that weird things happen when these two hook up. In 2002 arguably the best UGA team of the last 15 years squeeked one out against a mediocre Carolina assemblage 13-7, largely due to the most improbable interception of all time. In 2004 Carolina gets an early safety and David Greene throws a pick six as the Cocks roared to a 16-0 lead before the Dawgs settled in and managed to come back to win 20-16. In 2005 the SEC champs escaped with a 17-15 win when SC missed both an extra point and a 2 point conversion attempt in the game. Then there was last year when an 11 win UGA team failed to score a TD in a game they lost 16-12 to a 6 win S. Carolina squad. So if I was tremendously worried about this game, it would be justified. However I think this year will be different, so I'd take the DAWGS and lay the points. Why you ask? Well for one, Carolina has a loss. Normally the Cocks are undefeated and feeling good going into the UGA game, only twice since USC joined the SEC have they had a loss before playing UGA, 1999 and 2003. In those seasons they lost to UGA by 24-9 and 31-7 scores respectively. Secondly, since USC joined the SEC they've only beaten the Dawgs in Columbia twice, 1996 and 2000. In those games UGA had a combined 10 turnovers. This year the Dawgs have 2 turnovers both fumbles by backup QB Joe Cox, who is not likely to play in this game. And lastly their is the talent edge, which is clearly on UGA's side here, after all no Gamecock player can reasonably be expected to do this...
Knowshon drinks your milkshake, he drinks it up!
3. Oklahoma @ Washington- Say what you will about OU in BCS games, but during the regular season in games that should be blowouts the Sooners get the job done. Just ask victims of the last 2 seasons Miami(51-13), Tulsa (62-21), Baylor (52-21), Texas A&M (42-14) and the team that I think is closest to an approximation of UW's football talent Oklahoma St. (49-17). My guess is the score may not be much different in this game.
Ok, the Top 5 is done let's look at the SEC...
4. Florida- bye, they rest up for their next encounter with the great pumpkin.
UAB @ Tennessee- Speaking of the Great Pumpkin, he will undoubtedly have locked new OC Dave Clawson in a room with videos of Arian Foster running for 7 yards a play off tackle and have him ponder why he called 41 pass plays against UCLA. Fortunately for the Vols, UAB comes to town this week and we all know what Fulmer can do to cupcakes... or Krispy Kremes or a Shoney's breakfast bar, etc.
Mmmm...cupcakes.
MTSU @ Kentucky- The Cats are 2-0 and haven't allowed a TD yet on D. A Mighty UK D? Let's not get carried away, but they do look solid. The offense needs work, which the CATS will get in beating the Raiders.
Rice @ Vanderbilt- Vandy leading the SEC East? It's not a typo as the 'Dores have the early lead in the division race. Will this be the season they finally go bowling? I'm not sure, but this team looks like a bowl caliber team at this point. And Vandy will have more than enough to beat the Owls.
9. Auburn @ Mississippi St.- Auburn's new offense has looked less than dynamic thus far this season while their defense remains a substantial force. MSU never really had any offense to speak of last year and the early returns suggest that hasn't changed much. The other Bulldogs upset the Tigers on the Plains last year and I suspect that AU will be out to settle the score. My guess is this game will set offensive football back at least a decade but in the end the TIGERS will end up on top.
When I see an Auburn man I say, "So you went to high school twice then?"
North Texas @ 7. LSU- Les Miles has dealt with 5 Hurricanes thus far in his LSU tenure; one of which he beat 40-3(see 2005 Peach Bowl). The others have just flat disrupted his program to the nth degree. After cancelling games, playing games in other locations, and having a stadium without power, the Bayou Bengals have dealt with about as much Mother Nature inspired difficulty as a program can. None of this will stop the Tigers from beating the Green right off of N. Texas, however.
Western Kentucky @ 11. Alabama- Will the real 'Bama please stand up? First you pummel a preseason top 10 team 34-10, and what do you do for a follow up? You get out gained by Tulane 318-173 on your own field! Yes, they won the game, but geez, play to the level of your competition much? This never would have happened to the Bear. Still the Tide will Roll over WKU this weekend.
Without punt returns the Wave might have swept out the Tide.
Samford @ Ole Miss- The Nutt administration has shown a penchant for offense seldom seen in Oxford in earlier days. After nearly scalping the current ACC favorites on the road, the Rebels should have little trouble with Samford.
And the dud of the week
Arkansas @ 8. Texas- Arkansas needed fourth quarter comebacks to defeat, cough, W. Illinois and La-Monroe. Given the level of ineptitude required to make those games close at HOME, what do we honestly think is going to happen to the Hogs when they visit the number 8 Longhorns on the ROAD? I'll give you a hint, the word vivisection, a staggering understatement.
Methinks this is the week Bobby questions the wisdom of his latest career move.
THE GAME OF THE CENTURY
or so the ESPN/ABC overlords would have us believe...
5. Ohio St. @ 1. USC- Big 10 vs. Pac 10, national championship implications, Tressel vs. Carroll, Keith Jackson calling, whoa nelly this one has all the makings of greatness. Or it did until Ohio St. very nearly crapped the bed against the Ohio Bobcats. This plus Beanie Wells, being at less than 100% and the Trojans looking so good last week sets the stage for a USC massacre of the Buckeyes, right? Well, maybe, upon further review, UVA(USC's wk 1 conquest) may suck. They managed only 9 more points against mighty Richmond this week than they did against the Trojans the week before. Plus, I'm still not entirely sold on the USC offense. Still given Ohio St's issues with speedy teams in big games, and the fact that it's in LA will have me picking the Men of Troy to win. If you're a betting man, I'd take the Eyes of Buck and the points though. 11 is a big spread for this matchup.
2. Georgia @ S. Carolina- Generally I worry myself sick when my beloved Dawgs play the Gamecocks, because history tells us that weird things happen when these two hook up. In 2002 arguably the best UGA team of the last 15 years squeeked one out against a mediocre Carolina assemblage 13-7, largely due to the most improbable interception of all time. In 2004 Carolina gets an early safety and David Greene throws a pick six as the Cocks roared to a 16-0 lead before the Dawgs settled in and managed to come back to win 20-16. In 2005 the SEC champs escaped with a 17-15 win when SC missed both an extra point and a 2 point conversion attempt in the game. Then there was last year when an 11 win UGA team failed to score a TD in a game they lost 16-12 to a 6 win S. Carolina squad. So if I was tremendously worried about this game, it would be justified. However I think this year will be different, so I'd take the DAWGS and lay the points. Why you ask? Well for one, Carolina has a loss. Normally the Cocks are undefeated and feeling good going into the UGA game, only twice since USC joined the SEC have they had a loss before playing UGA, 1999 and 2003. In those seasons they lost to UGA by 24-9 and 31-7 scores respectively. Secondly, since USC joined the SEC they've only beaten the Dawgs in Columbia twice, 1996 and 2000. In those games UGA had a combined 10 turnovers. This year the Dawgs have 2 turnovers both fumbles by backup QB Joe Cox, who is not likely to play in this game. And lastly their is the talent edge, which is clearly on UGA's side here, after all no Gamecock player can reasonably be expected to do this...
Knowshon drinks your milkshake, he drinks it up!
3. Oklahoma @ Washington- Say what you will about OU in BCS games, but during the regular season in games that should be blowouts the Sooners get the job done. Just ask victims of the last 2 seasons Miami(51-13), Tulsa (62-21), Baylor (52-21), Texas A&M (42-14) and the team that I think is closest to an approximation of UW's football talent Oklahoma St. (49-17). My guess is the score may not be much different in this game.
Ok, the Top 5 is done let's look at the SEC...
4. Florida- bye, they rest up for their next encounter with the great pumpkin.
UAB @ Tennessee- Speaking of the Great Pumpkin, he will undoubtedly have locked new OC Dave Clawson in a room with videos of Arian Foster running for 7 yards a play off tackle and have him ponder why he called 41 pass plays against UCLA. Fortunately for the Vols, UAB comes to town this week and we all know what Fulmer can do to cupcakes... or Krispy Kremes or a Shoney's breakfast bar, etc.
Mmmm...cupcakes.
MTSU @ Kentucky- The Cats are 2-0 and haven't allowed a TD yet on D. A Mighty UK D? Let's not get carried away, but they do look solid. The offense needs work, which the CATS will get in beating the Raiders.
Rice @ Vanderbilt- Vandy leading the SEC East? It's not a typo as the 'Dores have the early lead in the division race. Will this be the season they finally go bowling? I'm not sure, but this team looks like a bowl caliber team at this point. And Vandy will have more than enough to beat the Owls.
9. Auburn @ Mississippi St.- Auburn's new offense has looked less than dynamic thus far this season while their defense remains a substantial force. MSU never really had any offense to speak of last year and the early returns suggest that hasn't changed much. The other Bulldogs upset the Tigers on the Plains last year and I suspect that AU will be out to settle the score. My guess is this game will set offensive football back at least a decade but in the end the TIGERS will end up on top.
When I see an Auburn man I say, "So you went to high school twice then?"
North Texas @ 7. LSU- Les Miles has dealt with 5 Hurricanes thus far in his LSU tenure; one of which he beat 40-3(see 2005 Peach Bowl). The others have just flat disrupted his program to the nth degree. After cancelling games, playing games in other locations, and having a stadium without power, the Bayou Bengals have dealt with about as much Mother Nature inspired difficulty as a program can. None of this will stop the Tigers from beating the Green right off of N. Texas, however.
Western Kentucky @ 11. Alabama- Will the real 'Bama please stand up? First you pummel a preseason top 10 team 34-10, and what do you do for a follow up? You get out gained by Tulane 318-173 on your own field! Yes, they won the game, but geez, play to the level of your competition much? This never would have happened to the Bear. Still the Tide will Roll over WKU this weekend.
Without punt returns the Wave might have swept out the Tide.
Samford @ Ole Miss- The Nutt administration has shown a penchant for offense seldom seen in Oxford in earlier days. After nearly scalping the current ACC favorites on the road, the Rebels should have little trouble with Samford.
And the dud of the week
Arkansas @ 8. Texas- Arkansas needed fourth quarter comebacks to defeat, cough, W. Illinois and La-Monroe. Given the level of ineptitude required to make those games close at HOME, what do we honestly think is going to happen to the Hogs when they visit the number 8 Longhorns on the ROAD? I'll give you a hint, the word vivisection, a staggering understatement.
Methinks this is the week Bobby questions the wisdom of his latest career move.
