Friday, February 24, 2006
Oscar pick version 1.0 (Best Actor):
Academy awards predicting is not unlike attempting to forecast a political campaign. You see the ads(in this case movies), you listen to the experts(critics), you follow the primary votes(Globes, SAG, DGA, etc) and then you attempt to make up your own mind for the main event(Oscar night). When attempting to divine what Academy voters might do it is helpful to know a couple of things: 1) Who are the candidates? 2) Which of the candidates has momentum? 3) what happened at the other award shows? and 4) What has the Academy done in the past?
First we have the candidates, Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote, Terrence Howard- Hustle and Flow, Heath Ledger-Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix-Walk the Line, and David Strathairn-Good Night and Good Luck. If momentum is any indicator than Heath Ledger would appear to be in good shape. Brokeback is a film that many feel could be a juggernaut on Oscar night and that could lift Ledger to a win.
As far as the other awards shows, the Globes split up the categories and hence the winners. Hoffman won for best dramatic performance and Phoenix won for best performance in a musical. Hoffman won the SAG award as well as the LA, Boston, and British Critic's prizes. Ledger won the New York's critics prize but on sheer strength of precedent, Hoffman is ahead.
This brings us to the immortal question WWTAD? What will the Academy do? Or more presciently what has the academy done in the recent past. One thing the Academy hasn't done is recognize Hip Hop culture, so sorry Terrance Howard despite an excellent turn as DJay, you will be applauding someone else on March 5th. Now the Academy has given an award recently to an actor playing a deceased musician in a biopic, so will this help Phoenix? Maybe, but frankly I think since it happened just last year, the voters will be looking to go in a different direction. Sorry Joaquin.
This process of elimination leaves us with 2 actors playing historical figures in biopics, and a third portraying a gay cowboy(who unfortunately does not eat pudding at any point in the movie). Let's tackle the historical figures first. What seems more challenging playing a courageous, beloved, brill-creamed news icon; or tackling an brilliant, eccentric, effete, kewpie doll voiced homosexual literary icon. I'll go with the latter, thanks for playing Strathairn, you get a copy of our home game.
And so we have two men, both potraying gay characters, albeit completely different in style and manner. Ledger gives a moving performance as a man troubled by his inner feelings, in a culture hostile to his inate desires. His Ennis Del Mar is tortured by love, and seemingly unable to fully give himself over to it. He's trapped between a sense of responsibility to his family and a desire for true happiness. It's a brilliant performance and one that Ledger's previous work had not indicated possible. However Hoffman is even more of a revelation. That he is pitch perfect as Truman Capote is not surprising, he's been doing marvelous character work for the better part of 15 years and only now is getting recognized for his skill. His Capote is also troubled, but by external forces; The horror of brutal murder and the deconstruction of the men behind it, this is the defining work of his life and it consumes him. To say that Hoffman nails Capote is too rote, he becomes him so fully that it's hard on the screen to see where Hoffman ends and Capote begins. It is perhaps the best work by a lead actor since Kevin Spacey became Keyser Soze. Ledger will have other chances to shine, this year's Oscar should go to Phillip Seymour Hoffman.
Academy awards predicting is not unlike attempting to forecast a political campaign. You see the ads(in this case movies), you listen to the experts(critics), you follow the primary votes(Globes, SAG, DGA, etc) and then you attempt to make up your own mind for the main event(Oscar night). When attempting to divine what Academy voters might do it is helpful to know a couple of things: 1) Who are the candidates? 2) Which of the candidates has momentum? 3) what happened at the other award shows? and 4) What has the Academy done in the past?
First we have the candidates, Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote, Terrence Howard- Hustle and Flow, Heath Ledger-Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix-Walk the Line, and David Strathairn-Good Night and Good Luck. If momentum is any indicator than Heath Ledger would appear to be in good shape. Brokeback is a film that many feel could be a juggernaut on Oscar night and that could lift Ledger to a win.
As far as the other awards shows, the Globes split up the categories and hence the winners. Hoffman won for best dramatic performance and Phoenix won for best performance in a musical. Hoffman won the SAG award as well as the LA, Boston, and British Critic's prizes. Ledger won the New York's critics prize but on sheer strength of precedent, Hoffman is ahead.
This brings us to the immortal question WWTAD? What will the Academy do? Or more presciently what has the academy done in the recent past. One thing the Academy hasn't done is recognize Hip Hop culture, so sorry Terrance Howard despite an excellent turn as DJay, you will be applauding someone else on March 5th. Now the Academy has given an award recently to an actor playing a deceased musician in a biopic, so will this help Phoenix? Maybe, but frankly I think since it happened just last year, the voters will be looking to go in a different direction. Sorry Joaquin.
This process of elimination leaves us with 2 actors playing historical figures in biopics, and a third portraying a gay cowboy(who unfortunately does not eat pudding at any point in the movie). Let's tackle the historical figures first. What seems more challenging playing a courageous, beloved, brill-creamed news icon; or tackling an brilliant, eccentric, effete, kewpie doll voiced homosexual literary icon. I'll go with the latter, thanks for playing Strathairn, you get a copy of our home game.
And so we have two men, both potraying gay characters, albeit completely different in style and manner. Ledger gives a moving performance as a man troubled by his inner feelings, in a culture hostile to his inate desires. His Ennis Del Mar is tortured by love, and seemingly unable to fully give himself over to it. He's trapped between a sense of responsibility to his family and a desire for true happiness. It's a brilliant performance and one that Ledger's previous work had not indicated possible. However Hoffman is even more of a revelation. That he is pitch perfect as Truman Capote is not surprising, he's been doing marvelous character work for the better part of 15 years and only now is getting recognized for his skill. His Capote is also troubled, but by external forces; The horror of brutal murder and the deconstruction of the men behind it, this is the defining work of his life and it consumes him. To say that Hoffman nails Capote is too rote, he becomes him so fully that it's hard on the screen to see where Hoffman ends and Capote begins. It is perhaps the best work by a lead actor since Kevin Spacey became Keyser Soze. Ledger will have other chances to shine, this year's Oscar should go to Phillip Seymour Hoffman.
Thursday, February 23, 2006
NL EAST predictions
1. Braves- As skipper of the Braves, Bobby Cox has been responsible for more happy finishes than an Asian massage parlor. 14 consecutive seasons Los Bravos have won the East title, and like any deranged killer in a horror movie you won't believe they are dead until you see the body. The rotation led by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson is the best in the division, and assuming that all the prominent youngsters(McCann, Francouer, Johnson, Devine, etc.) continue to improve the Braves will remain the team to beat. Only a suspect bullpen may hold them back.
2. Mets- I swear I have seen this offseason before. The Mets sign big name free agents('06 versions:Billy Wagner, Carlos Delgado) like Brittany Murphy gets engaged, often and unsuccessfully. They did it in '05 (Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran), they did it in '04(Kaz Matsui, Mike Cameron, Braden Looper), they did it in '03 (Tom Glavine, Cliff Floyd) and on and on and on. Yet for all of their attempts to throw the GDP of Peru at the team that can't seem to overcome the Boys from the South. This year the Mets appear to have a potent lineup and better pitching than usual. If they can avoid injuries and Beltran looks more like his Houston version, they should, at least, win the wildcard. However given their history of underachieving don't be surprised if they don't.
3. Phillies- Rollins, Rowand, Abreu, Burrell, Howard, and Utley is as good a 1-6 batting order as you'll find in the NL. Considering that they play in the band box known as Citizens Bank Park, this team should score alot of runs. Unfortunately for the Phightin' Phils the pitching isn't up to snuff. Replacing Billy Wagner with Tom Gordon is like replacing Sienna Miller with Fran Drescher(oops wrong nanny, Jude). This team will score enough to be about 10 games over .500 again. But they won't pitch well enough to challenge for the division.
4. Nationals- This team has some good players, just not enough of them. I like Vidro, Johnson and Guillen as everyday players, and the pitching staff has a few bright lights in Hernandez and Cordero. Soriano will most likely play poorly in that huge ballpark, and I don't know if Patterson can replicate what he did last year. Frank Robinson is worth a few wins, but ultimately this team needs more thunder to really compete.
5. Marlins- Can someone please tell me who is still on this team? The Fish's transaction report read like a who's who of big name departures. Delgado, Pierre, Castillo, Lowell, Burnett, Beckett, Gonzalez, all have left for greener($) pastures and the Marlins are left with Dontrelle Willis, Miquel Cabrera and a bunch of never haves and haven't yets. True, some of the young talent is impressive(Jeremy Hermida has to be the ROY favorite and Yusmeiro Petit was arguably the Mets best pitching prospect). But when you are looking at a starting lineup that could have Wes Helms, Pokey Reese and Miquel Olivo in it you might as well have Charlie Sheen closing. Can you say rebuilding year? I like the way you say that.
1. Braves- As skipper of the Braves, Bobby Cox has been responsible for more happy finishes than an Asian massage parlor. 14 consecutive seasons Los Bravos have won the East title, and like any deranged killer in a horror movie you won't believe they are dead until you see the body. The rotation led by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson is the best in the division, and assuming that all the prominent youngsters(McCann, Francouer, Johnson, Devine, etc.) continue to improve the Braves will remain the team to beat. Only a suspect bullpen may hold them back.
2. Mets- I swear I have seen this offseason before. The Mets sign big name free agents('06 versions:Billy Wagner, Carlos Delgado) like Brittany Murphy gets engaged, often and unsuccessfully. They did it in '05 (Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran), they did it in '04(Kaz Matsui, Mike Cameron, Braden Looper), they did it in '03 (Tom Glavine, Cliff Floyd) and on and on and on. Yet for all of their attempts to throw the GDP of Peru at the team that can't seem to overcome the Boys from the South. This year the Mets appear to have a potent lineup and better pitching than usual. If they can avoid injuries and Beltran looks more like his Houston version, they should, at least, win the wildcard. However given their history of underachieving don't be surprised if they don't.
3. Phillies- Rollins, Rowand, Abreu, Burrell, Howard, and Utley is as good a 1-6 batting order as you'll find in the NL. Considering that they play in the band box known as Citizens Bank Park, this team should score alot of runs. Unfortunately for the Phightin' Phils the pitching isn't up to snuff. Replacing Billy Wagner with Tom Gordon is like replacing Sienna Miller with Fran Drescher(oops wrong nanny, Jude). This team will score enough to be about 10 games over .500 again. But they won't pitch well enough to challenge for the division.
4. Nationals- This team has some good players, just not enough of them. I like Vidro, Johnson and Guillen as everyday players, and the pitching staff has a few bright lights in Hernandez and Cordero. Soriano will most likely play poorly in that huge ballpark, and I don't know if Patterson can replicate what he did last year. Frank Robinson is worth a few wins, but ultimately this team needs more thunder to really compete.
5. Marlins- Can someone please tell me who is still on this team? The Fish's transaction report read like a who's who of big name departures. Delgado, Pierre, Castillo, Lowell, Burnett, Beckett, Gonzalez, all have left for greener($) pastures and the Marlins are left with Dontrelle Willis, Miquel Cabrera and a bunch of never haves and haven't yets. True, some of the young talent is impressive(Jeremy Hermida has to be the ROY favorite and Yusmeiro Petit was arguably the Mets best pitching prospect). But when you are looking at a starting lineup that could have Wes Helms, Pokey Reese and Miquel Olivo in it you might as well have Charlie Sheen closing. Can you say rebuilding year? I like the way you say that.
Is it just me...
or are the Winter Olympics the most pointless sporting event imaginable? I get the Summer Games(running, jumping, lifting, wrestling, swimming) they are all about faster, higher, stronger; the paragons of human athletic achievement and seeing just how far we can push the human body. The Winter Games on the other hand seem to be mostly a collection of things one would do only if they were drunk and had lost a bet(curling, sliding down an ice ramp on your face, being male and wearing sequins). Now, I admit as an unabashed hockey fan, that I do enjoy the hockey tournament and snowboarding seems like fun; but otherwise I could sleep for 2 weeks and not miss a thing(except Scrubs of course).
or are the Winter Olympics the most pointless sporting event imaginable? I get the Summer Games(running, jumping, lifting, wrestling, swimming) they are all about faster, higher, stronger; the paragons of human athletic achievement and seeing just how far we can push the human body. The Winter Games on the other hand seem to be mostly a collection of things one would do only if they were drunk and had lost a bet(curling, sliding down an ice ramp on your face, being male and wearing sequins). Now, I admit as an unabashed hockey fan, that I do enjoy the hockey tournament and snowboarding seems like fun; but otherwise I could sleep for 2 weeks and not miss a thing(except Scrubs of course).
Who does Bush think he's kidding?
He's spent the last 5 years demonizing Arabs every chance he gets in hopes of getting xenophopic Americans, to support his militaristic and neo-colonial foreign policy. He's given to spouting off images of turbaned boogeymen, ready to kill at the drop of a hat in an effort to frighten people into accepting a reduction of civil liberties in exchange for "security". And just what security does he provide? Handing US port security to an Arab company...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060223/ap_on_go_pr_wh/ports_security
Port security, the ground zero for a potential WMD to be smuggled into the US, and we're going to have a country running it that has known ties to Al-Qaeda.
Neal Bush must own stock, because otherwise this one makes no sense.
He's spent the last 5 years demonizing Arabs every chance he gets in hopes of getting xenophopic Americans, to support his militaristic and neo-colonial foreign policy. He's given to spouting off images of turbaned boogeymen, ready to kill at the drop of a hat in an effort to frighten people into accepting a reduction of civil liberties in exchange for "security". And just what security does he provide? Handing US port security to an Arab company...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060223/ap_on_go_pr_wh/ports_security
Port security, the ground zero for a potential WMD to be smuggled into the US, and we're going to have a country running it that has known ties to Al-Qaeda.
Neal Bush must own stock, because otherwise this one makes no sense.
Uh, is this thing on?
What can I say, I needed to have my own blog. There is so much to comment on and it seems like every idiot with a PC is blogging these days, so I just had to join in. So give me your tired, your poor, and your emotionally infantile(the latter should particularly enjoy reading me). I plan on blogging as often as possible with as full a take on the days events as my frequently addled brain can provide.
So come my little dahlings, get blended, welcome to Bozworld.
What can I say, I needed to have my own blog. There is so much to comment on and it seems like every idiot with a PC is blogging these days, so I just had to join in. So give me your tired, your poor, and your emotionally infantile(the latter should particularly enjoy reading me). I plan on blogging as often as possible with as full a take on the days events as my frequently addled brain can provide.
So come my little dahlings, get blended, welcome to Bozworld.
