Monday, April 02, 2007
Baseball 07: The Senior Circuit.
So we enter 2007 with the defending World Champs raising a banner and then dropping the opener to the Mets. As I said before I don't see them repeating so this isn't really that significant. As for those Mets I don't know how excited they should get. Yes, Glavine pitched well, and he probably will for most of the year. But behind him you've got a collection of question marks that not even that offense may be able to overcome particularly in the rugged NL East. So without further gilding of the lily here are my NL picks.
National League East
1) Braves – I like the Braves after a one year hiatus to win the NL East again. Basically they have the best combination of starting and relief pitching in the division, and when considering what should be a potent offense, they look like the safest bet. Can Tim Hudson recapture his Oakland form? He's had a good spring and if he does he'll form with John Smoltz a terrific 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Atlanta thinks it will get Mike Hampton back around May – who knows what the Braves will get from Mark Redman in the meantime, the Braves are hoping Chuck James can recapture his Rookie magic. In the bullpen, closer Bob Wickman converted 18 of 19 saves after arriving from Cleveland last year. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez join him to comprise perhaps the best bullpen top 3 in the league. In the lineup, catcher Brian McCann and rightfielder Jeff Francoeur give Atlanta two homegrown guys to construct their new lineup around. Francoeur needs to take a few more pitches, but McCann has virtually no chinks in his offensive armor and has only Joe Mauer seperating him from being the best Catcher in baseball. Chipper Jones is still a stud when healthy, the Braves are hoping that will be more frequent this year and Andruw Jones is in a contract year with Scott Boras waiting in the wings, expect huge numbers. Edgar Renteria remains one of the better all-around shortstops in the game. Ryan Langerhans and Matt Diaz will make up one of the stranger outfield platoons – as Langerhans basically is a good field/no hit guy and Diaz is the exact opposite. Atlanta does face questions on the right side of the infield, planning to start converted outfielder Kelly Johnson at 2nd (he’ll probably lead off too) and young Scott Thorman at first, though former Pirate Craig Wilson may platoon with Thorman.
2) Phillies (wildcard) – This seems to be the Phillies team that should break the nearly 15 year playoff drought. Talent alone would seem to make this the case, but a worrisome spring has to have the pessimistic Philly faithful thinking, "here we go again". The right side of the infield, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, is the best in the game and shortstop Jimmy Rollins reached another level with his game last year. Those three alone make this a team to reckon with. The outfield could be either solid or a disaster. K machine Pat Burrell needs to waste fewer at bats in LF and CF Aaron Rowand, coming off an injury-plagued year needs to show he can produce something with the bat. In right, reaction is mixed regarding Shane Victorino, depending on your view, he's either a budding star or someone who should be platooning and pinch hitting, we'll find out which view is correct this season. At third base, Wes Helms should hit but he lacks range defensively. At catcher, Rod Barajas and Carlos Ruiz will provide the defense Lieberthal never could and possibly match at least some of his offense. The bench appears thoroughly average, with Jayson Werth probably the best hope for something notable. The rotation is potentially excellent, with Freddy Garcia, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton and Jon Lieber fighting over 5 spots. But Lieber already is hurt and Garcia has experienced biceps tendonitis while displaying a distressing slowing of his fastball. Myers and Hamels, at least, present realistic potential for 30 + combined wins and a strikeout per inning, and ageless Jaime Moyer has been fooling batters again this spring. The bullpen remains a work in progress, although Tom Gordon appears healthy and Ryan Madson has pitched well. There isn't much behind them, so a deal to bring bullpen help may need to happen for this team to reach it's potential.
3) Mets – The New York media likes to talk about the other teams in the division having to make up 12 games or more on the Mets, but last I checked last year's records are not included in this year's standings. Further, the Mets are running this rotation out there: Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey. Good times for hitters. Glavine is 41, El Duque is about that age and many scouts think he’s done and Perez, well, it's been a few years since the last time he was counted on. Maine and Pelfrey are good young arms but in all reality, the odds say one or both will struggle. And then there's Pedro, will he return? can he return? and when? July? August? nobody knows so it's hard to factor him into the Mets projection. In the bullpen, Billy Wagner is still terrific, though he's lost some velocity. His supporting crew is quite sound though not as deep as last year. In the lineup, the infield is one of the best in the majors with the fantastic left side of David Wright and Jose Reyes, the ever powerful Carlos Delgado at first and the offensively solid Jose Valentin on 2nd. Paul LoDuca remains a solid catcher all around and centerfielder Carlos Beltran returned to his typical level of excellence last year. Aging Moises Alou and Shawn Green will flank him so he may be doing alot of running in the gaps. At 48, Julio Franco looks like he just might be able to play until 50.
4) Marlins – Do not rule these guys out. If raw talent means anything they could be a force. Miguel Cabrera remains the hub of the lineup with teammates Josh Willingham (LF), Dan Uggla (2b), Hanley Ramirez (SS), Mike Jacobs (1b) and Miguel Olivo (C) provinding solid spokes to the offensive wheel. Jeremy Hermida needs to get healthy and begin realizing his vast potential in right and centerfield is up in the air with Alfredo Amezaga likely to great deal of time there again. The rotation is very young and talented, featuring the ever trade rumored Dontrelle Willis, along with talented sophomores Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen and Anibal Sanchez who just happened to throw a no-hitter last year. The bullpen is badly unsettled with young lefty Taylor Tankersley perhaps being the best option and he opens the season on the DL.
5) Nationals – The one truly hopeless cause in this division. John Patterson is a nice pitcher but the rotation is barren behind him. Dmitri Young will play first until Nick Johnson returns. Felipe Lopez is solid at 2nd and Ryan Zimmerman is probably counting the days until he can take his underrated talents elsewhere. Regular playing time for Ryan Church could lead to good things in the OF, and Brian Schneider is a very good catcher. The bullpen features a terrific closer in Chad Cordero but how many times will this team actually get to the ninth with a lead?
National League Central
1) Cardinals – I'm picking the Redbirds based on the past few years but I don't feel terribly strongly about it. The rotation is a problem behind Cris Carpenter, with the Cards converting Adam Wainwright to starter to fill holes. Closer Jason Isringhausen is a major health risk and the rest of the pen took a step back with the loss of Wainwright to the rotation. Plus this team is counting on Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds to stay healthy, which is sort of like counting on the Bengals roster to stay out of jail. Just as the pitching boasts Chris Carpenter, the lineup forms around Albert Pujols. It could be very strong with a healthy Rolen/Edmonds but that may be asking alot. Plus the keystone combo of Eckstein and Kennedy is not intimidating. In the outfield, there are a lot of options. Juan Encarnacion is terrific defensively and decent with the bat, Chris Duncan has power and So Taguchi will hit some and catch most evrything. But Edmonds appears to be on the way down, and the Cards may go down with him. But perhaps not this year.
2) Brewers – This could be the year of the Brew Crew. Bill Hall takes his 35 HR of a year ago from Short to Centerfield. He’ll be flanked by a rotating group that will include Tony Gwynn Jr., Geoff Jenkins, Gabe Gross and Kevin Mench. A pair of platoons, looks like the likely solution there. In the infield, Corey Koskie holds down third, while youngsters JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder bring a ton of ability to the other spots. Johnny Estrada should solidify the catcher’s spot, while Tony Grafanino and Craig Counsell make for nice infield depth. Ben Sheets leads an underrated rotation that also includes Chris Capuano, Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush. Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turnbow and Jose Capellan headline a deep bullpen.
3) Cubs – For 300 million they should be better. How much better will depend on pitching. The lineup looks fine. Aramis Ramirez hit 38 HRs last year with no one around him, this year he'll be flanked by Derreck Lee and Alfonso Soriano, expect good things. DeRosa has a nice bat, Michael Barrett remains a quality catcher and Jacque Jones brings his productive bat and glove to the north side. Carlos Zambrano is an ace, he's also in a contract year so he'll be gunning for big numbers. Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis were brought in to add depth to the rotation, Rich Hill gives them a quality lefty starter as well. One wonders how good they would be if Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were healthy. You'll have to keep wondering though because neither of them are. Dempster is a solid closer, and Howry a top setup man, the rest of the bullpen is a question mark. A mixed bag for the Cubs means middle of the division again.
4) Astros – This team has less pitching than it used to and more offense. That makes sense considering the bandbox they call home. Roy Oswalt is the best pitcher in the NL. Behind him Jason Jennings, Woody Williams and Brandon Backe make for a rotation that should be both solid and alliteratively pleasing. Brad Lidge will try to recapture the magic at closer. Though Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls do give the Astros options if he doesn't. In the lineup, Brad Ausmus at catcher and Adam Everett at short equate to some major offensive sacrifice in the name of defense. Craig Biggio looks like a shadow of himself at second. Fortunately Lance Berkman is a terrific hitter to build around and Carlos Lee should put up monster numbers at Minute Maid Field. If Morgan Ensberg bounces back, and Jason Lane, Chris Burke and Luke Scott can take advantage of increased playing time, the Astros could have a nice lineup.
5) Pirates – With a bit more power in the rotation this could be a nice team. As it is, the Pirates have a nice lineup and a solid bullpen, which should somewhat offset so-so starting pitching much of the time. Adam LaRoche gives the Pirates a true clean-up hitter and a lefty slugger well-suited to PNC park. He fits nicely in the 4th spot, with batting champ Freddie Sanchez hitting 3rd and all star Jason Bay batting 5th. Shortstop Jack Wilson will do a good job batting 2nd, and catcher Ronny Paulino and 3rd baseman Jose Bautista give the order some added punch. Much of the Pirates improvement will be tied to Chris Duffy and Xavier Nady. If they improve so will the Bucs. In that rotation, Ian Snell gives the Pirates one very promising power righty. Unfortunately, he’s joined by two finesse lefties – Zach Duke and Paul Maholm – both young pitchers of promise, and third lefty, Tom Gorzelanny, who isn’t a finesse pitcher but isn’t quite a power pitcher either. Retread Tony Armas Jr. rounds out the rotation. Salomon Torres finally gets a chance to close. His support crew includes Matt Capps and Damaso Marte.
6) Reds – The Reds looked respectable for a time last year, but I suspect it's back to the dregs this year. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo both had career years last year. Can they do it again? If not it will be a long year, because there isn't much behind them in the rotation. The bullpen isn't much better, David Weathers closing? Please. Adam Dunn will hit 40 HRs, and so could Griffey if he plays enough. Brandon Phillips is a nice piece and so is Ryan Freel, the rest is kinda blah. Big Red machine this is not.
National League West
1) Dodgers – How bad is the NL West, The best team has Rafael Furcal hitting 3rd. Rafael Furcal moves to the heart of the order as the Dodgers overpaid to pry Juan Pierre from the Cubs to lead off, while impressive young catcher Russell Martin will bat 2nd. The power alley will consist of oldsters Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra and Luis Gonzalez. One guy to watch is third baseman Wilson Betemit, who is seriously talented. Meanwhile, the real reason LA is the favorite is pitching and a ton of it. Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf and Chad Billingsly making a strong rotation. Leftover starters Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson are in the bullpen. Jonathan Broxton looks like the closer of the future, but for now, he sets up for Takashi Saito.
2) Giants – This team is old. Like Steve DeBerg as Falcons QB old. Here are the ages of the starting lineup. CF Dave Roberts (34), SS Omar Vizquel (39), RF Randy Winn (32, a veritable youngster), LF Barry Bonds (42), 2B Ray Durham (35), C Bengie Molina (32), 1B Rich Aurilia (35), 3B Pedro Feliz (31, the baby of the bunch). While undoubtedly most of these guys can still play an injury or two wouldn't be surprising and in fact should practically be expected. The rotation looks good though with Barry Zito, joining veterans Matt Morris and Russ Ortiz and youngsters Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. Armando Benitez will close, and the bullpen looks relatively promising. Bruce Bochy is the new manager and will get the most out of this veteran group.
3) Padres – I like their pitching. Peavy, Maddux, Young, and Hensley is a nice front 4. The bullpen is also quite good with all timer, Trevor Hoffman closing, and quality veterans like Scott Linebrink and Doug Brocail setting up. I'm not crazy about their offense. Sledge is a bad leadoff hitter, Marcus Giles is a young guy in decline already and his brother Brian doesn't have enough power to hit 3rd anymore. I do like the young trio of Greene, Gonzalez, and Kouzmanoff, but not enough to pick them to make the playoffs.
4) Diamondbacks – This is a team with a nice future. Youngsters all over like Orlando Hudson (2B), Stephen Drew (SS), Chad Tracy (3B), Conor Jackson (1B) and Chris Young (CF). Of that group only Hudson is over 25, and they can all play. The starting staff has a nice 1-2 punch with Brandon Webb and the Big Unit. Hernandez will eat innings and Davis is a decent lefty. Valverde has the stuff to be a top closer, and Jorge Julio gives them a nice setup man. There is alot to like but too much youth to expect a high finish.
5) Rockies – The Rockies also have some nice young players, just not as many as the D-backs. You could do worse than a lineup built around bats like Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe. The problem is they have Willy Tavares and Kaz Matsui hitting in front of them. In the rotation Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis make up a nice top 2 but the options thin out like Denver's air behind them. Brian Fuentes shares with Chad Cordero the distinction of being closer most likely to be wasted due to lack of ninth inning leads.
Postseason predictions:
American League:
1st round: White Sox over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels
ALCS: White Sox over Yankees
National League:
1st Round: Braves over Cardinals, Dodgers over Phillies
NLCS: Braves over Dodgers
World Series: White Sox over Braves
National League East
1) Braves – I like the Braves after a one year hiatus to win the NL East again. Basically they have the best combination of starting and relief pitching in the division, and when considering what should be a potent offense, they look like the safest bet. Can Tim Hudson recapture his Oakland form? He's had a good spring and if he does he'll form with John Smoltz a terrific 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Atlanta thinks it will get Mike Hampton back around May – who knows what the Braves will get from Mark Redman in the meantime, the Braves are hoping Chuck James can recapture his Rookie magic. In the bullpen, closer Bob Wickman converted 18 of 19 saves after arriving from Cleveland last year. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez join him to comprise perhaps the best bullpen top 3 in the league. In the lineup, catcher Brian McCann and rightfielder Jeff Francoeur give Atlanta two homegrown guys to construct their new lineup around. Francoeur needs to take a few more pitches, but McCann has virtually no chinks in his offensive armor and has only Joe Mauer seperating him from being the best Catcher in baseball. Chipper Jones is still a stud when healthy, the Braves are hoping that will be more frequent this year and Andruw Jones is in a contract year with Scott Boras waiting in the wings, expect huge numbers. Edgar Renteria remains one of the better all-around shortstops in the game. Ryan Langerhans and Matt Diaz will make up one of the stranger outfield platoons – as Langerhans basically is a good field/no hit guy and Diaz is the exact opposite. Atlanta does face questions on the right side of the infield, planning to start converted outfielder Kelly Johnson at 2nd (he’ll probably lead off too) and young Scott Thorman at first, though former Pirate Craig Wilson may platoon with Thorman.
2) Phillies (wildcard) – This seems to be the Phillies team that should break the nearly 15 year playoff drought. Talent alone would seem to make this the case, but a worrisome spring has to have the pessimistic Philly faithful thinking, "here we go again". The right side of the infield, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, is the best in the game and shortstop Jimmy Rollins reached another level with his game last year. Those three alone make this a team to reckon with. The outfield could be either solid or a disaster. K machine Pat Burrell needs to waste fewer at bats in LF and CF Aaron Rowand, coming off an injury-plagued year needs to show he can produce something with the bat. In right, reaction is mixed regarding Shane Victorino, depending on your view, he's either a budding star or someone who should be platooning and pinch hitting, we'll find out which view is correct this season. At third base, Wes Helms should hit but he lacks range defensively. At catcher, Rod Barajas and Carlos Ruiz will provide the defense Lieberthal never could and possibly match at least some of his offense. The bench appears thoroughly average, with Jayson Werth probably the best hope for something notable. The rotation is potentially excellent, with Freddy Garcia, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton and Jon Lieber fighting over 5 spots. But Lieber already is hurt and Garcia has experienced biceps tendonitis while displaying a distressing slowing of his fastball. Myers and Hamels, at least, present realistic potential for 30 + combined wins and a strikeout per inning, and ageless Jaime Moyer has been fooling batters again this spring. The bullpen remains a work in progress, although Tom Gordon appears healthy and Ryan Madson has pitched well. There isn't much behind them, so a deal to bring bullpen help may need to happen for this team to reach it's potential.
3) Mets – The New York media likes to talk about the other teams in the division having to make up 12 games or more on the Mets, but last I checked last year's records are not included in this year's standings. Further, the Mets are running this rotation out there: Tom Glavine, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey. Good times for hitters. Glavine is 41, El Duque is about that age and many scouts think he’s done and Perez, well, it's been a few years since the last time he was counted on. Maine and Pelfrey are good young arms but in all reality, the odds say one or both will struggle. And then there's Pedro, will he return? can he return? and when? July? August? nobody knows so it's hard to factor him into the Mets projection. In the bullpen, Billy Wagner is still terrific, though he's lost some velocity. His supporting crew is quite sound though not as deep as last year. In the lineup, the infield is one of the best in the majors with the fantastic left side of David Wright and Jose Reyes, the ever powerful Carlos Delgado at first and the offensively solid Jose Valentin on 2nd. Paul LoDuca remains a solid catcher all around and centerfielder Carlos Beltran returned to his typical level of excellence last year. Aging Moises Alou and Shawn Green will flank him so he may be doing alot of running in the gaps. At 48, Julio Franco looks like he just might be able to play until 50.
4) Marlins – Do not rule these guys out. If raw talent means anything they could be a force. Miguel Cabrera remains the hub of the lineup with teammates Josh Willingham (LF), Dan Uggla (2b), Hanley Ramirez (SS), Mike Jacobs (1b) and Miguel Olivo (C) provinding solid spokes to the offensive wheel. Jeremy Hermida needs to get healthy and begin realizing his vast potential in right and centerfield is up in the air with Alfredo Amezaga likely to great deal of time there again. The rotation is very young and talented, featuring the ever trade rumored Dontrelle Willis, along with talented sophomores Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen and Anibal Sanchez who just happened to throw a no-hitter last year. The bullpen is badly unsettled with young lefty Taylor Tankersley perhaps being the best option and he opens the season on the DL.
5) Nationals – The one truly hopeless cause in this division. John Patterson is a nice pitcher but the rotation is barren behind him. Dmitri Young will play first until Nick Johnson returns. Felipe Lopez is solid at 2nd and Ryan Zimmerman is probably counting the days until he can take his underrated talents elsewhere. Regular playing time for Ryan Church could lead to good things in the OF, and Brian Schneider is a very good catcher. The bullpen features a terrific closer in Chad Cordero but how many times will this team actually get to the ninth with a lead?
National League Central
1) Cardinals – I'm picking the Redbirds based on the past few years but I don't feel terribly strongly about it. The rotation is a problem behind Cris Carpenter, with the Cards converting Adam Wainwright to starter to fill holes. Closer Jason Isringhausen is a major health risk and the rest of the pen took a step back with the loss of Wainwright to the rotation. Plus this team is counting on Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds to stay healthy, which is sort of like counting on the Bengals roster to stay out of jail. Just as the pitching boasts Chris Carpenter, the lineup forms around Albert Pujols. It could be very strong with a healthy Rolen/Edmonds but that may be asking alot. Plus the keystone combo of Eckstein and Kennedy is not intimidating. In the outfield, there are a lot of options. Juan Encarnacion is terrific defensively and decent with the bat, Chris Duncan has power and So Taguchi will hit some and catch most evrything. But Edmonds appears to be on the way down, and the Cards may go down with him. But perhaps not this year.
2) Brewers – This could be the year of the Brew Crew. Bill Hall takes his 35 HR of a year ago from Short to Centerfield. He’ll be flanked by a rotating group that will include Tony Gwynn Jr., Geoff Jenkins, Gabe Gross and Kevin Mench. A pair of platoons, looks like the likely solution there. In the infield, Corey Koskie holds down third, while youngsters JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder bring a ton of ability to the other spots. Johnny Estrada should solidify the catcher’s spot, while Tony Grafanino and Craig Counsell make for nice infield depth. Ben Sheets leads an underrated rotation that also includes Chris Capuano, Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush. Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turnbow and Jose Capellan headline a deep bullpen.
3) Cubs – For 300 million they should be better. How much better will depend on pitching. The lineup looks fine. Aramis Ramirez hit 38 HRs last year with no one around him, this year he'll be flanked by Derreck Lee and Alfonso Soriano, expect good things. DeRosa has a nice bat, Michael Barrett remains a quality catcher and Jacque Jones brings his productive bat and glove to the north side. Carlos Zambrano is an ace, he's also in a contract year so he'll be gunning for big numbers. Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis were brought in to add depth to the rotation, Rich Hill gives them a quality lefty starter as well. One wonders how good they would be if Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were healthy. You'll have to keep wondering though because neither of them are. Dempster is a solid closer, and Howry a top setup man, the rest of the bullpen is a question mark. A mixed bag for the Cubs means middle of the division again.
4) Astros – This team has less pitching than it used to and more offense. That makes sense considering the bandbox they call home. Roy Oswalt is the best pitcher in the NL. Behind him Jason Jennings, Woody Williams and Brandon Backe make for a rotation that should be both solid and alliteratively pleasing. Brad Lidge will try to recapture the magic at closer. Though Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls do give the Astros options if he doesn't. In the lineup, Brad Ausmus at catcher and Adam Everett at short equate to some major offensive sacrifice in the name of defense. Craig Biggio looks like a shadow of himself at second. Fortunately Lance Berkman is a terrific hitter to build around and Carlos Lee should put up monster numbers at Minute Maid Field. If Morgan Ensberg bounces back, and Jason Lane, Chris Burke and Luke Scott can take advantage of increased playing time, the Astros could have a nice lineup.
5) Pirates – With a bit more power in the rotation this could be a nice team. As it is, the Pirates have a nice lineup and a solid bullpen, which should somewhat offset so-so starting pitching much of the time. Adam LaRoche gives the Pirates a true clean-up hitter and a lefty slugger well-suited to PNC park. He fits nicely in the 4th spot, with batting champ Freddie Sanchez hitting 3rd and all star Jason Bay batting 5th. Shortstop Jack Wilson will do a good job batting 2nd, and catcher Ronny Paulino and 3rd baseman Jose Bautista give the order some added punch. Much of the Pirates improvement will be tied to Chris Duffy and Xavier Nady. If they improve so will the Bucs. In that rotation, Ian Snell gives the Pirates one very promising power righty. Unfortunately, he’s joined by two finesse lefties – Zach Duke and Paul Maholm – both young pitchers of promise, and third lefty, Tom Gorzelanny, who isn’t a finesse pitcher but isn’t quite a power pitcher either. Retread Tony Armas Jr. rounds out the rotation. Salomon Torres finally gets a chance to close. His support crew includes Matt Capps and Damaso Marte.
6) Reds – The Reds looked respectable for a time last year, but I suspect it's back to the dregs this year. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo both had career years last year. Can they do it again? If not it will be a long year, because there isn't much behind them in the rotation. The bullpen isn't much better, David Weathers closing? Please. Adam Dunn will hit 40 HRs, and so could Griffey if he plays enough. Brandon Phillips is a nice piece and so is Ryan Freel, the rest is kinda blah. Big Red machine this is not.
National League West
1) Dodgers – How bad is the NL West, The best team has Rafael Furcal hitting 3rd. Rafael Furcal moves to the heart of the order as the Dodgers overpaid to pry Juan Pierre from the Cubs to lead off, while impressive young catcher Russell Martin will bat 2nd. The power alley will consist of oldsters Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra and Luis Gonzalez. One guy to watch is third baseman Wilson Betemit, who is seriously talented. Meanwhile, the real reason LA is the favorite is pitching and a ton of it. Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Randy Wolf and Chad Billingsly making a strong rotation. Leftover starters Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson are in the bullpen. Jonathan Broxton looks like the closer of the future, but for now, he sets up for Takashi Saito.
2) Giants – This team is old. Like Steve DeBerg as Falcons QB old. Here are the ages of the starting lineup. CF Dave Roberts (34), SS Omar Vizquel (39), RF Randy Winn (32, a veritable youngster), LF Barry Bonds (42), 2B Ray Durham (35), C Bengie Molina (32), 1B Rich Aurilia (35), 3B Pedro Feliz (31, the baby of the bunch). While undoubtedly most of these guys can still play an injury or two wouldn't be surprising and in fact should practically be expected. The rotation looks good though with Barry Zito, joining veterans Matt Morris and Russ Ortiz and youngsters Matt Cain and Noah Lowry. Armando Benitez will close, and the bullpen looks relatively promising. Bruce Bochy is the new manager and will get the most out of this veteran group.
3) Padres – I like their pitching. Peavy, Maddux, Young, and Hensley is a nice front 4. The bullpen is also quite good with all timer, Trevor Hoffman closing, and quality veterans like Scott Linebrink and Doug Brocail setting up. I'm not crazy about their offense. Sledge is a bad leadoff hitter, Marcus Giles is a young guy in decline already and his brother Brian doesn't have enough power to hit 3rd anymore. I do like the young trio of Greene, Gonzalez, and Kouzmanoff, but not enough to pick them to make the playoffs.
4) Diamondbacks – This is a team with a nice future. Youngsters all over like Orlando Hudson (2B), Stephen Drew (SS), Chad Tracy (3B), Conor Jackson (1B) and Chris Young (CF). Of that group only Hudson is over 25, and they can all play. The starting staff has a nice 1-2 punch with Brandon Webb and the Big Unit. Hernandez will eat innings and Davis is a decent lefty. Valverde has the stuff to be a top closer, and Jorge Julio gives them a nice setup man. There is alot to like but too much youth to expect a high finish.
5) Rockies – The Rockies also have some nice young players, just not as many as the D-backs. You could do worse than a lineup built around bats like Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe. The problem is they have Willy Tavares and Kaz Matsui hitting in front of them. In the rotation Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis make up a nice top 2 but the options thin out like Denver's air behind them. Brian Fuentes shares with Chad Cordero the distinction of being closer most likely to be wasted due to lack of ninth inning leads.
Postseason predictions:
American League:
1st round: White Sox over Red Sox, Yankees over Angels
ALCS: White Sox over Yankees
National League:
1st Round: Braves over Cardinals, Dodgers over Phillies
NLCS: Braves over Dodgers
World Series: White Sox over Braves
