Thursday, June 12, 2008
60 Democrats in the Senate?
60 votes in the US Senate are required to prevent a filibuster. So the goal of
the Democratic Party this year should be to elect enough Senators to get to that
level.
Right now, there are 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 2 Independents (Sanders-VT & Lieberman-CT) who both caucus with the Dems(though some would argue that Lieberman should be tossed out on his ear).
In November of 2008, there will be 33 Senate seats up for election AND one special election - to replace the retired Trent Lott-MS. For the Dems to achieve a 60 seat super-majority they will need to win 9 seats that are now held by a Republican. Here are the most likely seats to flip:
John Warner (R-VA) - A GOP retiree. Probably the single most likely seat to flip, Republican Jim Gilmore is a former state governor but will be overwhelmed by Dem Mark Warner and the surge of votes that will come with the increased turnout that soon-to-be President Obama is going to bring to all Democrats on all tickets. Plus Mark Warner is wildly popular in Virginia.
John Sununu (R-NH)- Former governor Jean Shaheen, is very popular in New Hampshire and the Republican brand just isn't selling very well in New England right now.
Wayne Allard (R-CO) - he has wisely announced that he will not seek a return to the Senate. It's hard to be a Republican and have any self-respect these days - Allard chose the high road. The Dem candidate, Mark Udall, is already favored to win over Abramoff stained GOPer Bob Schaffer.
Ted Stevens (R-AK) - this guy will probably be in jail by Nov '08 and he has a competent challenger in former Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.
Pete Domenici (R-NM) - another GOP Senator who just couldn't look himself in the mirror anymore and decided to retire. Democratic congressman Tom Udall, the first cousin of Mark Udall (see Colorado above), is favored to win already.
Norm Coleman (R-MN) - former SNL cast member and current Air America host Al Franken has an uphill battle here, but with financial support from the national party and the grassroots supporters who love him, Franken could pull the upset. Keep in mind, Minnesota did elect a former wrestler as govenor, so a comedian as Senator is not much of a stretch here.
Susan Collins (R-ME)- Maine is a fairly liberal state, but Collins is one of the few actual moderate Republicans left. She's also very popular in Maine. Congressman Tom Allen already represents half of the state in Congress and will attempt to woo the other half as the Democratic challenger. This one will be tough.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - the last time the Senate minority leader was not returned to office by his home state was all the way back in... 2004. Remember Democrat Tom Daschle? In 2008, McConnell is going to have to defend sticking to his menu of politically fatal Bush policies: endless war in Iraq, tax cuts for the richest 1% of Americans and wiping your ass with the U.S. Constitution. DLC style, centrist triangulator Dem candidate Bruce Lunsford isn't perfect, but he's rich and will make Mitchie work to hold this seat.
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) - she is the favorite to win here, but she has alot to worry about. If african-american voters flock to the polls in November they would most likely choose Dem Kay Hagan while they're in the voting booth. If so, this race could be a Dem blowout. Again this is just not a good year to be a Republican.
Gordon Smith (R-OR) - I've always wondered why a solidly blue state like Oregon would have a Republican in one of it's Senate seats. Well, it's mostly because this guy makes himself out to be a moderate. With the right campaign strategy to expose the real Gordon Smith and (again) financial support from the DSCC, Democrat Jeff Merkley could steal this seat.
Roger Wicker (R-MS) - this is the special election. Wicker was appointed to this seat when Trent Lott retired off to wherever ex Klansmen retire too. Now Wicker has to win a full election to keep it. This should be a close race, but interestingly Wicker has never actually won a statewide race in Mississippi, while former Democratic govenor Ronnie Musgrove has. As with most of the rest of the South, African American turnout may be the deciding factor.
That's 11 seats all within reach, win 9 and party. Win 10, kick Lieberman to the curb and party even more.
the Democratic Party this year should be to elect enough Senators to get to that
level.
Right now, there are 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 2 Independents (Sanders-VT & Lieberman-CT) who both caucus with the Dems(though some would argue that Lieberman should be tossed out on his ear).
In November of 2008, there will be 33 Senate seats up for election AND one special election - to replace the retired Trent Lott-MS. For the Dems to achieve a 60 seat super-majority they will need to win 9 seats that are now held by a Republican. Here are the most likely seats to flip:
John Warner (R-VA) - A GOP retiree. Probably the single most likely seat to flip, Republican Jim Gilmore is a former state governor but will be overwhelmed by Dem Mark Warner and the surge of votes that will come with the increased turnout that soon-to-be President Obama is going to bring to all Democrats on all tickets. Plus Mark Warner is wildly popular in Virginia.
John Sununu (R-NH)- Former governor Jean Shaheen, is very popular in New Hampshire and the Republican brand just isn't selling very well in New England right now.
Wayne Allard (R-CO) - he has wisely announced that he will not seek a return to the Senate. It's hard to be a Republican and have any self-respect these days - Allard chose the high road. The Dem candidate, Mark Udall, is already favored to win over Abramoff stained GOPer Bob Schaffer.
Ted Stevens (R-AK) - this guy will probably be in jail by Nov '08 and he has a competent challenger in former Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.
Pete Domenici (R-NM) - another GOP Senator who just couldn't look himself in the mirror anymore and decided to retire. Democratic congressman Tom Udall, the first cousin of Mark Udall (see Colorado above), is favored to win already.
Norm Coleman (R-MN) - former SNL cast member and current Air America host Al Franken has an uphill battle here, but with financial support from the national party and the grassroots supporters who love him, Franken could pull the upset. Keep in mind, Minnesota did elect a former wrestler as govenor, so a comedian as Senator is not much of a stretch here.
Susan Collins (R-ME)- Maine is a fairly liberal state, but Collins is one of the few actual moderate Republicans left. She's also very popular in Maine. Congressman Tom Allen already represents half of the state in Congress and will attempt to woo the other half as the Democratic challenger. This one will be tough.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - the last time the Senate minority leader was not returned to office by his home state was all the way back in... 2004. Remember Democrat Tom Daschle? In 2008, McConnell is going to have to defend sticking to his menu of politically fatal Bush policies: endless war in Iraq, tax cuts for the richest 1% of Americans and wiping your ass with the U.S. Constitution. DLC style, centrist triangulator Dem candidate Bruce Lunsford isn't perfect, but he's rich and will make Mitchie work to hold this seat.
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) - she is the favorite to win here, but she has alot to worry about. If african-american voters flock to the polls in November they would most likely choose Dem Kay Hagan while they're in the voting booth. If so, this race could be a Dem blowout. Again this is just not a good year to be a Republican.
Gordon Smith (R-OR) - I've always wondered why a solidly blue state like Oregon would have a Republican in one of it's Senate seats. Well, it's mostly because this guy makes himself out to be a moderate. With the right campaign strategy to expose the real Gordon Smith and (again) financial support from the DSCC, Democrat Jeff Merkley could steal this seat.
Roger Wicker (R-MS) - this is the special election. Wicker was appointed to this seat when Trent Lott retired off to wherever ex Klansmen retire too. Now Wicker has to win a full election to keep it. This should be a close race, but interestingly Wicker has never actually won a statewide race in Mississippi, while former Democratic govenor Ronnie Musgrove has. As with most of the rest of the South, African American turnout may be the deciding factor.
That's 11 seats all within reach, win 9 and party. Win 10, kick Lieberman to the curb and party even more.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Think gas prices are bad now, it's worse than you know...
Oil closed today at $136.38 a barrel. For the uninitiated a barrel is 42 gallons of oil. That is about $3.25 a gallon. Now the thing to remember is the cost of crude is only roughly 70% of the price of a gallon of gas. First, you have the blending components(ethanol, butane, alkylate, etc.), that make up the rest of the refined gas that you pump, and then you have local, state and federal taxes on gasoline to consider as well. The percentage of the cost of gas that crude oil makes up varies from state to state, largely because of the variance in tax rates but 70% is about average. Now taking that 70% as a baseline, and equating that to $3.25, we discover that these crude prices equate to pump prices of about $4.63 a gallon. So why is gas at $4.04 as a national average currently?
There are several reasons. First off there is a notable lag between the purchase of crude oil on the open market and it's being refined into gasoline. For example a tanker from Saudi Arabia takes about 40 days to sail to the US. So oil purchased from the Middle East isn't even going to arrive here for over a month. Additionally most refiners keep somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 days crude supply on hand, so the most recently arrived crude may not be refined immediately. Add in time to refine the oil, blend the gasoline, and then pump/distribute it and you are looking at close to 3 months before that crude purchase actually makes it to your gas tank. So the increased costs are still filtering their way through the system.
If the price of oil continues to go up, here are the prices at the pump we can expect to see in the months ahead:
At $140/bbl, gas would be about $4.77/gal.
At $150/bbl, gas would be about $5.10/gal.
At $175/bbl, gas would be about $5.93/gal.
At $200/bbl, gas would be about $6.80/gal.
and so on...
Not a good time to own one of these.
There are several reasons. First off there is a notable lag between the purchase of crude oil on the open market and it's being refined into gasoline. For example a tanker from Saudi Arabia takes about 40 days to sail to the US. So oil purchased from the Middle East isn't even going to arrive here for over a month. Additionally most refiners keep somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 days crude supply on hand, so the most recently arrived crude may not be refined immediately. Add in time to refine the oil, blend the gasoline, and then pump/distribute it and you are looking at close to 3 months before that crude purchase actually makes it to your gas tank. So the increased costs are still filtering their way through the system.
If the price of oil continues to go up, here are the prices at the pump we can expect to see in the months ahead:
At $140/bbl, gas would be about $4.77/gal.
At $150/bbl, gas would be about $5.10/gal.
At $175/bbl, gas would be about $5.93/gal.
At $200/bbl, gas would be about $6.80/gal.
and so on...
Not a good time to own one of these.
These people are voting Republican...
