Monday, March 27, 2006
And the seas shall rise...
Global warming anyone? The RealClimate website has posted an article citing new evidence about how much sea levels could rise due to global warming. Here's the nitty gritty if you don't fell like reading the whole thing:
Projecting forward in time, the implication is that our future will also see 4-6 m of sea level rise, and that -- given the recent evidence for accelerated flow of both Greenland and Antarctic glaciers -- this may occur much faster than we expect. In the model simulations, Greenland may already be warmer in 2100 than it was at the height of the LIG. The rate of sea level rise associated with the warming into the last interglacial was probably greater than 10 mm/yr* while current sea level rise is roughly 3 mm/yr. To the extent that the LIG is a good analog for our future, sea level rise is therefore rather likely to accelerate.
4 to 6 meters for those without metric conversions handy is approximately 13 to 19 feet of extra water around the globe. Most of south and central Florida would be gone. Manhattan would be under water, the subways would be fun to explore for scuba enthusiasts, but not good for commuting. We wouldn't have to worry about New Orleans reconstruction, because there wouldn't be a New Orleans, or much of South Louisiana which would vanish, along with nice chunks of Alabama, Mississippi, or Texas. A number of critical U.S. ports such as Galveston, Houston, Tampa, and Miami; would no longer have to worry about whether Arabs would be running their security, as they would be under water.
As a public service, I'm providing a link to the National Elevation Dataset here. This way you can check and see if your home will soon merge with the Little Mermaid's. On the upside if you're not under water, you may soon get to take advantage of newly created beachfront property!
Projecting forward in time, the implication is that our future will also see 4-6 m of sea level rise, and that -- given the recent evidence for accelerated flow of both Greenland and Antarctic glaciers -- this may occur much faster than we expect. In the model simulations, Greenland may already be warmer in 2100 than it was at the height of the LIG. The rate of sea level rise associated with the warming into the last interglacial was probably greater than 10 mm/yr* while current sea level rise is roughly 3 mm/yr. To the extent that the LIG is a good analog for our future, sea level rise is therefore rather likely to accelerate.
4 to 6 meters for those without metric conversions handy is approximately 13 to 19 feet of extra water around the globe. Most of south and central Florida would be gone. Manhattan would be under water, the subways would be fun to explore for scuba enthusiasts, but not good for commuting. We wouldn't have to worry about New Orleans reconstruction, because there wouldn't be a New Orleans, or much of South Louisiana which would vanish, along with nice chunks of Alabama, Mississippi, or Texas. A number of critical U.S. ports such as Galveston, Houston, Tampa, and Miami; would no longer have to worry about whether Arabs would be running their security, as they would be under water.
As a public service, I'm providing a link to the National Elevation Dataset here. This way you can check and see if your home will soon merge with the Little Mermaid's. On the upside if you're not under water, you may soon get to take advantage of newly created beachfront property!
