Pop Culture Cuisinart

Oscar pick version 1.0 (Best Actor):

Academy awards predicting is not unlike attempting to forecast a political campaign. You see the ads(in this case movies), you listen to the experts(critics), you follow the primary votes(Globes, SAG, DGA, etc) and then you attempt to make up your own mind for the main event(Oscar night). When attempting to divine what Academy voters might do it is helpful to know a couple of things: 1) Who are the candidates? 2) Which of the candidates has momentum? 3) what happened at the other award shows? and 4) What has the Academy done in the past?

First we have the candidates, Philip Seymour Hoffman-Capote, Terrence Howard- Hustle and Flow, Heath Ledger-Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix-Walk the Line, and David Strathairn-Good Night and Good Luck. If momentum is any indicator than Heath Ledger would appear to be in good shape. Brokeback is a film that many feel could be a juggernaut on Oscar night and that could lift Ledger to a win.

As far as the other awards shows, the Globes split up the categories and hence the winners. Hoffman won for best dramatic performance and Phoenix won for best performance in a musical. Hoffman won the SAG award as well as the LA, Boston, and British Critic's prizes. Ledger won the New York's critics prize but on sheer strength of precedent, Hoffman is ahead.

This brings us to the immortal question WWTAD? What will the Academy do? Or more presciently what has the academy done in the recent past. One thing the Academy hasn't done is recognize Hip Hop culture, so sorry Terrance Howard despite an excellent turn as DJay, you will be applauding someone else on March 5th. Now the Academy has given an award recently to an actor playing a deceased musician in a biopic, so will this help Phoenix? Maybe, but frankly I think since it happened just last year, the voters will be looking to go in a different direction. Sorry Joaquin.

This process of elimination leaves us with 2 actors playing historical figures in biopics, and a third portraying a gay cowboy(who unfortunately does not eat pudding at any point in the movie). Let's tackle the historical figures first. What seems more challenging playing a courageous, beloved, brill-creamed news icon; or tackling an brilliant, eccentric, effete, kewpie doll voiced homosexual literary icon. I'll go with the latter, thanks for playing Strathairn, you get a copy of our home game.

And so we have two men, both potraying gay characters, albeit completely different in style and manner. Ledger gives a moving performance as a man troubled by his inner feelings, in a culture hostile to his inate desires. His Ennis Del Mar is tortured by love, and seemingly unable to fully give himself over to it. He's trapped between a sense of responsibility to his family and a desire for true happiness. It's a brilliant performance and one that Ledger's previous work had not indicated possible. However Hoffman is even more of a revelation. That he is pitch perfect as Truman Capote is not surprising, he's been doing marvelous character work for the better part of 15 years and only now is getting recognized for his skill. His Capote is also troubled, but by external forces; The horror of brutal murder and the deconstruction of the men behind it, this is the defining work of his life and it consumes him. To say that Hoffman nails Capote is too rote, he becomes him so fully that it's hard on the screen to see where Hoffman ends and Capote begins. It is perhaps the best work by a lead actor since Kevin Spacey became Keyser Soze. Ledger will have other chances to shine, this year's Oscar should go to Phillip Seymour Hoffman.